A crypto hedge fund is now arguing the next big move in Ethereum is driven not just by protocol innovation, but macro liquidity dynamics. XWIN Finance has posited that Ethereum could revisit $10,000 this cycle — assuming current liquidity tailwinds remain intact.
The thesis hinges on several converging signals: U.S. M2 money supply has climbed to new highs (? $22.2T), while exchange ETH reserves have dropped more than 25% since 2022, signaling lower supply pressure. With inflows persistent and sell-side supply constrained, the “liquidity revaluation” argument is gaining traction among digital asset funds.
XWIN’s forecast arrives in a moment of mounting institutional crypto flows. Digital asset investment products registered $5.95B of inflows last week alone, buoyed by weak U.S. labor data and political uncertainty. With Bitcoin already pushing past $124,000, Ethereum’s upside narrative is gaining confidence.
The risk to this view is clear: it depends on macro stability, regulatory clarity, and continued appetite from institutional allocators. If liquidity reverses, or if policy headwinds emerge, the ETH revaluation could unravel — but for now, XWIN is placing a big directional bet on liquidity momentum driving structural upside in crypto markets.