Bloomberg – Citadel Investment Group LLC, the $12 billion hedge fund manager, T. Boone Pickens and the Merchant Commodity fund expect natural gas to rebound from a historic losing streak.
Hedge funds amassed a $3 billion wager on rising prices in New York futures markets as gas plunged 74 percent in the past 10 months, the biggest drop of any commodity. Chicago-based Citadel added to its bet in September by taking over trades from Amaranth Advisers LLC, the hedge fund that’s closing after losing $6.5 billion in the gas market.
Demand for gas, used for furnaces and power plants, will outstrip supply as production from U.S. wells declines in 2007, say the chief executive officers of energy producers Devon Energy Corp. and EOG Resources Inc. Natural gas will average $9 per million British thermal units over the next 12 months, says EOG’s chief, Mark Papa, up from less than $6 last week.
“If you told me I had to go long or short today, I would go long,” betting on higher prices, said Pickens, whose Dallas hedge fund is up 120 percent this year. Gas may reach $10 this winter if cold weather depletes inventories, he said on Oct. 11 in New York. He declined to predict when his fund might get back into the gas market after exiting earlier this year.
Natural gas may rise as high as $12 per million Btu by March, said Michael Coleman, founder of Singapore-based Aisling Analytics Pte Ltd., which runs the $386 million Merchant Commodity hedge fund.
